What If? The Mechelen Incident

An example of Case Yellow plans

In a break from the Italian series, I have decided to introduce a new segment to this blog: What If? This segment is designed to identify what might have happened had certain events not happened. In this instance, we shall observe the Mechelen Incident.

It is early January 1940. Germany has successfully invaded Poland, Britain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands have all officially declared war on Germany, however due to the lack of immediate retaliation by the Allies the so-called "Phony War" is begun.

At this time, Germany is planning an invasion of the Low Countries, that is Belgium and the Netherlands. The invasion is set for January 17, and the Allies are wary. However, a lapse of judgement on the part of two German officers may have cost Germany the war.

On the morning of January 10, a German aviator had offered to transport a fellow officer, Major Helmuth Reinberger, from Loddenheide to Cologne. The pilot got lost and was heading west, trying to spot the Rhine and get his bearings. However, having passed the Rhine he inadvertently passed Germany and the Netherlands and crossed into Belgium.

At this time, the pilot may have inadvertently cut off fuel to his engine and the plane was forced to make an emergency landing in a Belgian field. Both officers were unscathed, however after the crash Reinberger revealed to the pilot that he was transporting parts of the plan for Fall Gelb (Case Yellow), the invasion plan, and they needed to destroy them as soon as possible.

In a slightly humorous exchange, the two Germans search frantically for a way to burn the documents. They finally find a single match but before they can burn the documents completely they are discovered by Belgian border guards and taken into custody. When they are taken to the border guard shack, the two officers try again to burn the documents. Failing once again, Reinberger attempts to grab the Belgian officer's pistol in order to kill himself, but he fails that too.

When the Belgians were finally able to read the documents, they discovered that the Germans intended to invade the Low Countries in less than a week. The Belgians deployed a deception to make the Germans think that they didn't know their plans, and to buy time to consult with the other Allies.

Unfortunately for the Allies, the subterfuge eventually fails, and while Hitler had intended to go on with the plan unchanged, foul weather on the 17th of January force the invasion to be postponed, and the Allies' tensions abate.

The larger implications of this incident, however, resulted in the Allies being unprepared for the change in tactics that lead to the German blitzkrieg strike through the Ardennes and into France. The 'what if' comes in to play when one considers what might have happened had the plans not been changed. also, what might have happened had the Allies not considered the plans to be a 'plant' by the Germans?

It has been argued that had the Germans continued with their plans unchanged the Allies would have been better prepared and the campaign would have taken far longer than it did, and it may have resulted in an entirely different outcome. Until next time, take care, and thanks for reading.